The frequency of 'misses' ...

Discussion in 'Planet Calypso' started by Lykke TheNun, Apr 19, 2010.

  1. Lykke TheNun

    Lykke TheNun In Loot We Trust

    I went out for argo's yesterday ... young and adults.

    I'm "incredible pistoleer hit"
    I use Breer5 - maxed out
    I do not use an amp
    ... and yet, I managed to get 4 misses in a row on an argo young which was standing very close to me. I was hitting the health bar ...

    And actually, I have a LOT of misses on the argos.

    Is that normal?? I would have hoped it would add up with the crit I make, but it doesn't!

    Anyone noticed the same?
     
  2. For me the most misses are single but sometimes it comes in groups of three or fours, but I think overall my hits is about 90%.:shoot:

    And I hunt mostly Argo´s
     
  3. Lykke TheNun

    Lykke TheNun In Loot We Trust

    And your skills and guns??

    :)
     
  4. CB13 og CB19 maxed out in To Hit (CB19 is not maxed out in Damage, but almost)
     
  5. Did you get the yellow lines - or nothing at all?
    Ive noticed standing right in front of a mob shooting it... No lines.. No yellow lines.. no dmg lines...

    You can parse the chat.log to figure out what your miss rate on average is. (That will obviously be across all weapons)...

    If you want to figure out what the miss rate is on a specific weapon I trust you have some kind of beta version of the EP-tracker client which im sure has that capability (to read the miss/hit lines).. if you havent got that / it hasent got that capability yet... You _could_ run the entropiatracker client.. That will tell you the miss rate, as well as a lot of other things about your weapon usage.
    Get it from www.entropiatracker.com

    Direct link: www.entropiatracker.com/client.rar
     
  6. Lykke TheNun

    Lykke TheNun In Loot We Trust

    Hmm, why would I, when I have a perfectly fine - and soon to be everything you wish for - tracker directly on this forum??

    ------------------------

    Anyway, my point was really not to find out the amount of hits - I can already tell - but merly to find out wether others experience the same - especially with maxed out guns. I for one would have thought the *miss' should be less the better you are at both gun and mob. I'm just amazed that there's so many miss' at such a noobish mob with a maxed gun ...
     
  7. Thats why I said you prolly already had that avalible in some kind of beta version of your client. :)
    And if you dident, but wanted to see it - I offered a program that could tell it to you. There are many others out there such as EPG and "EU hunting tool" (cant remember the exact name)... + more prolly...

    In short - yes.
    I think its the same as "multiple crits in a row"... Some times I deal like 2-3 crits as well in a row.
    Its too little data to look at just 4 shots.
    Over a periode of 2000 shots I bet you the stats will be 99% the same all the time. If you had "too good stats" the system prolly corrected it self with 4x misses in a row.
     
  8. John BD

    John BD Subwoofers rock.

    dont see anything i dont see :D
    Im lvl 70+ and still miss with tt handgun, also sometimes 4 in a row making me frown.
     
  9. Lykke TheNun

    Lykke TheNun In Loot We Trust

    Yes, but the thing is it seems to happen much more on Argonauts than any other mob. Which is confusing. Also, it happens more with a maxed gun than my delta, which I yet didn't max out? I would LOVE to believe there is a reason which is not only to drain out more money from my card - and in the beginning with the miss' that's what I told myself. But seeing the amount of miss' I got yesterday I am having a feeling it doesn't hold water!
     
  10. Misses same as crits and lots of other stuff in EU, come in waves. So 3 or 4 misses is not unusual.

    Theoretically on maxed gun your misses should be 8% from total shots. Unless you have documented data that your hitrate is much more lower than that, there's no reason for concern.
     
  11. If you ask MA their answer will be somethign along the lines of "Select the right profession the right day" .. I think it comes in waves as well...
    Prehaps argonauts are better at dodge one day compared to another... Hard to speculate about.. But if you constantly are hitting less on argo's... It could be something else... How is your return on them.. Prehaps that makes up for the miss rate?

    Many factors to consider...
     
  12. Lykke TheNun

    Lykke TheNun In Loot We Trust

    Alright :) This basically gave me a hint! Seems it happens all over then and not just for me!

    So I guess I have to get used to the yellow messages ...

    MISS
    MISS
    MISS
    THIS CREATURE DIDN*T CARRY ANY LOOT
     
  13. Pretty much gotta agree w/ what the others have said.

    A lot of folks have used the recent data gathering tools to calculate hit/miss stats. Turns out the previous calculations for maxed/unmaxed guns hit rates were fairly correct.

    So, while it occasionally feels like "damn I'm missing a LOT :viking:" you are hitting at the same rate you've always hit. And yes it is very possible to miss 2, 3, 4 times in a row.

    The only time you really need to worry is when you are shooting and NOT seeing dmg/miss lines. Then you know you're just shooting air and need to stop shooting and adjust your aim/distance. (This happens most often when tagging and you're too far away.)
     
  14. I have no idea where (on EF) i read that, but didn't MA officially state that the hitrate depends on the mob you shoot at??

    And yes, missing a lot on argos, too - with maxed weapons, can't confirm if that an "argo only" thing tho, i'm hunting too little atm.
     
  15. Suppose hitrate is 90%, then it's very easy to calculate the probability of getting 4 misses in a row. It's 1/(10 to the power of 4) which is 0.0001
    In this case, if you get off 2k shots per hour (not an unrealistic figure), then you'll miss four times in a row once every 5 hours (on average, but the spacing would vary pretty wildly)

    And its such a rare event for you that you feel impelled make a thread about it?

    Hmm, either hit rate is an awful lot better than 90% or else you don't do much hunting!


    jay :)

    PS. anyone know how to do indices on a keyboard?
     
  16. Most people use the ^ symbol.
     
  17. Lerp

    Lerp blind combantant

    This reminds me of the time I though I could win at roulette and blackjack and any close to 50/50 odds game I could find.

    I thought well if I dont win I just double my bet and If I dont win I just double it again and each time I will add one $.
    If I win after 5 hand I should get all my $ back and have 5 extra bucks.
    Never happen. I worked on this and other % ideas on a model 100 computer in 1986 for weeks and weeks.

    Each mob even the same lvl, same mob, same area will be a bit diffrent from the others near it.
    We all know this.
    Also each of your strikes will be a bit diffrent from each of the ones before or after it.
    Eveything will be close but diffrent. Each lvl of interaction has some sort of random # factor in it. 1-3,3-7 ect ect.
    So first you want to caculate in the randomness of numbers they wont give you.
    Thats the easy part.

    Then you ask well why 3 roulette balls land on red in a row.
    The odds are about 50/50 if you dont count the green square.
    Even with 50/50 odds dont be suprised to see 100,000 red wins in a row.
    It could happen.
    Each kill has randomness in it.
    It is possible for you to never kill another creature again.
    For every shot you ever take to be a miss.
    I bet it wont happen but it could.
    If it does please keep your distance from me.
     
  18. khaos

    khaos DnB'addict

    I'm pretty sure they just opted for the standard programming randomness where they code it like:
    If Random.Next(0,100) > 90
    Miss
    Else
    Hit

    That means you have 0.10^4 chance of missing 4 times in a row, which is 0.01%. Statistically...
     
  19. Thorn

    Thorn Proud CND Baby

    The good hits and misses as well as higher or lower damage seem to come in waves just like rolling dice. It often seems that it rains when it pours too. Meaning that when I`m missing more I`m also doing less average damage per hit as well as experiencing problems with faps, getting killed by crits etc at the same time.

    As for the number of misses I don`t think I`ve ever gotten 3 crits or more in a row but I`ve certainly seen 4, 5 or even 6 misses in a row on man occasions. For me it just boils down to them over time tweaking things to yes drain a few more PEC from everyone. And we see this in all areas so no surprise really.

    Now the funny part is how they always rationalize it as if there are reasons it should be so other than the one I just mentioned. Even players rationalize it which is funnier still. To me it`s still just more PEC leaving my possession. Though I remember a time when we did`nt miss at all too.
     
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