EU ponderings - The Casino analogy and additional thoughts on the webshop

Hey all,

I wanted to jot a few thoughts down on a couple of topics that I've been thinking about recently, triggered by some of my travels and changes in EU habits.

First one, bit of a bad joke, but here goes:

Q: What's the difference between EU and a Slot Machine?
A: With a slot machine you know the exact odds of the machine paying out, with EU you have no idea...

I recently had the chance to go to Las Vegas for a holiday and I did end up playing a bit of slots and table games like Blackjack. And I couldn't help think, especially at the slot machines, about how there are similarities between EU and casino games.

The difference is that casino games are far more transparent when it comes to understanding the "house edge" and what your % payback will be. E.g. Slot machines are regulated by law and have to state their % return rates, so you know what you expect to lose over time. Most slot machines seem to be between 95% to 99% payback.

Table games the house edge is lower, playing basic strategy blackjack on a decent table should see a house edge of less than 0.5%. Games like Roulette have a high house edge of over 4% and shouldn't be touched with a barge pole.

Still, it got me thinking more about hunting being more like a slot machine and whether it functions like a progressive jackpot machine, where all your plays are contributing cash in a large jackpot. Efficient hunting or mining etc... is in a sense analogous to playing basic strategy in Blackjack, a way to reduce the house edge and minimise cash leaks.

Second Thought - The webshop and impact on efficient hunting

So put simply I'm a bit fan of the webshop for hunting. I now buy all my ammo there, but again it got me thinking about it a bit more. The main reason I buy there is costs. It's cheaper to buy ammo on the webshop than to deposit and buy in game using a credit card. Firstly to get 1000 PED of ammo on the webshop cost exactly US$100, whereas in-game I might have to deposit US$104 to get the same amount of ammo.

You do get a few extras like auto-loot pills but ultimately I think the US$3-4 savings versus a credit card is the main advantage. Over the long run this can add up.

But again has got me thinking. Will the EU loot pool adapt to the webshop changes? IE you might find your loots declining slightly to account for that US$3-4 dollar difference in ammo pricing that exists.

Or will it just carry on, given the ammo on the webshop cannot be TT'ed? I also tend to recycle all my shrapnel as well taking advantage in that small 1% boost in ammo. Every little helps in my opinion. I then sell any items in-game and use the PEDs to buy AUDs etc...building up some small income stream to expand my play.

Anyhow New Year ponderings so too speak :-) Enjoy!

 

Yes comps is part and parcel of the casino experience, especially in Vegas :-) I did learn you didn't need to be a high roller either to get something whether it was free buffet or some stuff comped of your final hotel bill.

I still have MA's comment ringing in my ears that "EU is not a game" :-) When you asked them what it was, they never seem to have an answer except it's a virtual universe.

Still I do agree, put in what you are willing to lose. And if you do get lucky, then I always think the old advice of "get up and walk" is a good one. Because you'll either dump it back or end up being more broke than before.

In that sense, I've certainly walked from EU a couple of times with decent profits that I used in RL. So in that sense I can't really fault the game that much. It's been good to me.

 

True, in that sense EU acts more like a game that combines skill and chance like Poker, Blackjack and Craps where certain things the player can do will improve their house edge. However, the game mechanics of EU tends to play like a slot machine with the rinse and repeat mechanics :-) Plus I do think HoF's and Globals are triggered almost like a progressive slot machine with the tiered jackpots and needing to bet maximum coin to even have a chance of getting the big jackpot.

But really my argument isn't so much around the randomness but the related concept of "expected value" and that casino games are far more transparent about that than EU. All casino games have expected values or to put differently a "house edge", sometimes it's also known as "Theoretical Return to Player".

A slot machine has perhaps a Theoretical Return of say 95%. in simplistic terms you put in US$100 and expect to get out $95. Blackjack is around 99.5% depending on the rules used for example (it can be higher if the rules are bad). Poker has a positive "expect value" if you are a skilled player.

So the deeper question I have is what is the Theoretical Return of playing EU? Or to put it another way what is Mindark's "House Edge" in all the activities. You put in 1000PED of Ammo, what is the value of the loot that you get back. I know there are lots of hunting diaries and analysis, I just haven't seen a definitive answer yet.

Is the "House Edge" on say hunting 5%, 10%, 20% etc...?

Once you know the basic "house edge" then you can start to try and improve your chances. That's where EU differs from Casino Games because of all the options to improve against the house edge.

There's trading to get better markups, there's the skill system that is essentially a progressive system that allows you to hunt better things. There's the hunting efficiency tactics you can do. Even buying CLDs and AUDs are a way of reducing the edge by filling in the theoretical return. Missions to get items or skills is another, for example I don't hunt a mob unless I have a mission for it.

To tie into my second thought in the original post, one thing I now do to reduce the house edge is buy ammo from the Webshop because I save on credit card fees. My US$100 on the webshop buys US$100 of Ammo, not US$96.5 worth if I deposit in-game.

My final thought is more open. Does EU adapt so that MA always has a consistent house edge? If players try and be more efficient, does the system change the dynamics so that MA always get's a consistent daily return?

 

Good conversations all around :-)

First off one thing I will say is that I'm not criticising EU by comparing it to a casino. In fact for me it's the opposite, personally having the mental model of EU being a casino helps in my gameplay and strategies.

When looking back on my time in EU that has certainly played a role in how I make my profits by finding my own edges to beat the "house" so too speak.

The gameplay is mechanical hence the slot machine analogies. You can't change the rules of how hunting, mining etc... works. But as people have pointed out the skill element is the bit on top. The ability to trade your goods, the ability to select the right weapon to your skills and having knowledge. That in my view is the same as people who are able to beat the house in a casino by using their knowledge of the games available or taking advantage of things like comps to again improve your edge, one cheeky tactic of professional gamblers is getting free show tickets and then just selling them to someone else in the casino. Or tactics to get the maximum amount of freeplay on slots etc...